While there’s a growing picture that Russia’s assault on Ukraine has not gone to plan, the country continues to use its air power to obliterate cities and target civilians to push Ukraine into submission.
1. Russia could intensify its bombing campaign
Experts are warning that the more Russia takes a hit on the ground, the more likely it is to intensify its aerial bombing campaign and the use of other “standoff” weapons that put Russian soldiers in less danger
2. While there’s focus on Kyiv, Russia may try to encircle Ukrainian fighters
While there is a lot of attention on Russia’s push toward Kyiv, most of the Ukrainian army remains near Donetsk and Luhansk, where they are grouped as the Joint Forces Operation. The movement of Russian troops suggest they are trying to encircle the JFO on three axes, and this is likely to be Russia’s main focus.
3. There will be more talk about talks in the east
Russian officials have said that their demands include Ukraine dropping its pitch to join NATO and to demilitarize and adopt a “neutral” status, like Austria and Sweden have. But the conditions for what that means for Ukraine would have to be negotiated
4. There could be wholesale “deportations” of Ukrainians into Russia
Russia has been telling residents of the southern city of Mariupol to leave as it carries on an aggressive aerial bombardment that has torn the city to pieces. Its forces have opened what they call “humanitarian corridors” to allow civilians to flee, but tens of thousands of them have been transported to Russia. That’s worrying.
5. Millions more Ukrainians could flee, leaving a nation in pieces
What past wars show is that refugees often never return to their home countries. So often there is little to return to. Sometimes the threat of yet another war is enough to keep refugees away.
